I like this list of Trend Wars from IEEE Concurrency Vol. 8, No. 1, January - March 2000
It clearly shows how wireless access technologies were poised to be the next big thing in 2000. You could almost say exactly the same today, but perhaps be less cagey about 3G as it has firmed up quite a bit.
The article is based on interviews with a number of experts:
Eric A. Brewer is an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley in the Department of Computer Science. He cofounded Inktomi Corporation in 1996, and is currently its chief scientist. He received his BS in computer science from UC Berkeley, and his MS and PhD from MIT. He is a Sloan Fellow, an Okawa Fellow, and a member of Technology Review's TR100, Computer Reseller News' Top 25 Executives, Forbes "E-gang," and the Global Economic Forum's Global Leaders for Tomorrow.
Fred Douglis is the head of the Distributed Systems Research Department at AT&T Labs- Research. He has taught distributed computing at Princeton University and the Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam. He has published several papers in the area of World Wide Web performance and is responsible for the AT&T Internet Difference Engine, a tool for tracking and viewing changes to resources on the Web. He chaired the 1998 Usenix Technical Conference and 1999 Usenix Symposium on Internetworking Technologies and Systems, and is program cochair of the 2001 Symposium on Applications and the Internet (SAINT). He has a PhD in computer science from the University of California, Berkeley.
Peter Druschel is an assistant professor of computer science at Rice University in Houston, Texas. He received his MS and PhD in computer science from the University of Arizona. His research interests include operating systems, computer networking, distributed systems, and the Internet. He currently heads the ScalaServer project on scalable cluster-based network servers.
Gary Herman is director of the Internet and Mobile Systems Laboratory in Hewlett-Packard Laboratories, Palo Alto, CA, and Bristol, UK. His organization is responsible for HP's research on technologies required for deploying and operating the service delivery infrastructure for the future Internet, including the opportunities created by broadband and wireless connectivity. Prior to joining HP in 1994, he held positions at Bellcore, Bell Laboratories, and the Duke University Medical Center. He received his PhD in electrical engineering from Duke University.
Franklin Reynolds is a senior research engineer at Nokia Networks and works at the Nokia Research Center in Boston. His interests include ad hoc self-organizing distributed systems, operating systems, and communications protocols. Over the years he has been involved in the development of various operating systems ranging from small, real-time kernels to fault-tolerant, distributed systems.
Munindar Singh is an assistant professor in computer science at North Carolina State University. His research interests are in multiagent systems and their applications in e-commerce and personal technologies. Singh received a BTech from the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, and a PhD from the University of Texas, Austin. His book, Multiagent Systems, was published by Springer-Verlag in 1994. Singh is the editor-in-chief of IEEE Internet Computing.
The interview is based on the following questions:
Internet Technology Questions
1. In retrospect, what were the decisive turning points for Internet and WWW technology to become ubiquitous and pervasive?
2. What are the next likely disruptive technologies in Internet space that might make new marks in the way we live and work?
3. What are the most important technologies that will determine the future Internet's speed and direction?
4. Where do you see the roles of industry, startups, research labs, universities, "open source" companies, and standard organizations in shaping the future Internet?
5. What will be the major application areas dominating the Web?
6. What is the most controversial and unpredictable technology in the Internet space?
Why not take this prediction test yourself today in September 2004?
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