8 May 2007

Geof Houston now predicts IPv4 IANA/8 exhaustion in December 2009

IPv4 Address Report Geof Houston has updated his model predicting IPv4 address space exhaustion. Now the projected IANA Unallocated Address Pool Exhaustion date is 18-Dec-2009. Last month this prediction was 06-Jul-2011 (c.f. my earlier blog post).

He notes:

(Note: 8 May 2007) Frequent visitors to this page would see that the projected data of IANA unallocated pool exhaustion has moved by some months as of the 8th May. The reason for this change of the projection is the use of a different mathematical model as of this date. Previous reports used a best fit of an exponential model to the most recent 1000 days of data in order to generate the predictive model. As indicated in Figure 22 of this report, this exponential model now deviates from the recent data, and the predictive model is based on a quadratic equation.

Posted by mofoghlu at May 8, 2007 4:36 PM | TrackBack
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